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Fed to cut rates again, as policy makers Meet
After the U.S. Federal Reserve meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday) Most experts expect an average percentage point cut in the benchmark federal funds rates â € "which is already 1.0%.
That members doesn € ™ t leave the € ™ s Central bank policy making Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. However, politicians may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement accompanying the rate decision at the end of the two-day session may shed some information on actions œcreativeâ € â € Federal Reserve might consider, in addition to rate cuts (eg the central bank might extend the window for investment in new business offering, providing additional loan guarantees, or use any number of other tools).
And the Fed may have to use the other tools. As Japana € ™ s â € € œLost Decadeâ shown, â € œzeroâ interest rates Wona € ™ € t necessarily implement an economy â € "especially when interest rates weren € ™ t really the problem. And as several pieces of money the morning of research have shown, low interest rates sand ™ € t necessarily induce banks to lend. In fact, many banks are using the federal rescue money to finance bids.
The ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets in Algeria on Wednesday and the president, Chakib Khelil, implies that a cut production is surprisingly great in the cards. While OPEC controls about 40% of the worldâ ™ € s oil supplies, analysts Energy stocks have more actions than words. , Said one analyst: â € œYou can announce all the cuts you want. The Compliance is the key. "
Market Issues
In a major story last week, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) may be the elimination of 35,000 jobs, which adds Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) to its growing List of subsidiary companies.
But in an even bigger story, an influential Wall Street, Bernard Madoff made headlines (and nearly $ 50 million from investors in the process). A former president of The Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) ASDAQ was arrested for committing perhaps the biggest fraud investors in history (Enron may be off the hook) and Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC seems to have been â Œbasically a giant Ponzi € € schemeâ (his words).  While the list of customers appears to be relatively small, at first, the consequences be widespread, as some of the largest funds of funds involved in Madoff € ™ s investments, his clients include some of the worldâ ™ € s (formerly) rich folks. addition, regulators have many questions to answer, such as lax oversight failed to uncover this massive fraud which have been committed by years. Stay tuned â € "this isnâ ™ € t leave soon.
In â € € œlighterâ news, the U.S. House of Representatives approved a € â € œpreliminaryâ auto rescue package that would provide $ 14 billion for the big three â € "Ford Motor Co. (F) may not need any now €" and create a new car czar to oversee an industry restructuring. While Wall Street initially hailed the move as a positive step to a necessary revision, the Senate demanded greater concessions from the unions of cars and the bill basically became â €  € œdead in arrival.â Since the Treasury Department U.S. appears to be increasingly comfortable with the concept of rescue with each passing day, Bush administration officials suggested that aid through asset at 700 billion U.S. dollars difficulties Relief Program (TARP) would yield even without Senate approval. Indeed, an oversight committee gave the bailout of much poorer initial report card, citing a lack of transparency in terms of how dollars are spent and whether recipients are complying with the intentions the government (no surprise automakers want to participate too).
Elsewhere, Merrill € ™ s John A. Thain reversed its previous position œchoosingâ € â € to give up his 2008 bonus of € ™ s Morgan Stanley (MS) John J. Mack quickly followed suit. The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), Sony Corp. (ADR: SNE), and 3M Corp. (MMM) joined Bank of America and others to announce significant job cuts. FedEx Corp. (FDX) and The Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) previous perspectives and reduced sales projections.
Oil prices fluctuated sharply as traders weighed against supply and demand Reporting:
- The Energy Information Administration expects demand weak performance in the fall in consumption until 2009, including significant production cuts could be announced at the next OPEC meeting.
- With oil trading below 47 dollars per barrel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (from € â € ™ œweâ going to $ 200/barrel € fame) contradicts previous forecasts saying prices could fall to $ 30 (and lost some credibility in the process).
Stocks react favorably to the rumors of President-elect Barack Obamaâ € ™ s $ 500 + billion stimulus package (see below) and the apparent progress with the automaker negotiations. As the past week, reports of new job losses and more financial problems stopped the optimism and short ™ € Senateâ s inability to pass a law of self brought more excessive volatility. A œflight a quality feeling â € € contributed to the yields of the 3-month T-bills of immersion to 0.0% (thata € ™ s Zero percent â € | talk about risk aversion).
Market / Index
Year Close (2007)
Trim Closure (09/30/08)
Previous Week
(12/05/08)
This Week
(12/12/08)
YTD Change
Dow Jones Industrial
13,264.82
10,850.66
8,635.42
8,629.68
-34.94%
NASDAQ
2,652.28
2,091.88
1,509.31
1,540.72
-41.91%
S & P 500
1,468.36
1,164.74
876.07
879.73
-40.09%
Russell 2000
766.03
679.58
461.09
468.43
-38.85%
Fed Funds
4.25%
2.00%
1.00%
1.00%
-325 Bps
10-year Treasury (Yield)
4.04%
3.83%
2.66%
2.59%
-145 Bps
Economically speaking
"I am absolutely sure that if we take appropriate measures in coming months, we not only can get the economy back on track, but may arise leaner, more dynamic and ultimately more competitive and prosperous. "
Somehow a stimulus plan directing economic $ 500 + million dollars in new FDR-like public works programs to increase employment does not necessarily â € œleaner and meaner.â € Â However, many analysts believe the Obama plan (yet as a child) may be just the tonic needed to revive the economy.
Meanwhile, the EU announced its 200 billion package own fight U.S. dollars of the 27 member countries worldwide recession. Not to be outdone, Japan, revealed some of the significant incentives of their own purposes in the week. With the recession and push one year, at Duke University released the results of the Global Business Outlook survey showed that 60% national finance directors of the fall will last until the 4th quarter of next year ⠀ "and maybe more. Similarly, a
Wall Street Journal forecasting survey predicted four consecutive quarters of negative growth, as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP, the longest period of contraction economic downturn since the Great Depression.
A week light on the economic calendar ended with a couple of important reports that the Fed gave material a little more than anecdotal to the (excessive) analysis before the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow. With applications for unemployment benefits reached its highest highest since November 1982, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and friends should make job creation its main retail November priorities. Retail fell 1.8% as carmakers reported its worst monthly activity level in 26 years.
Still, the decline was lower than expected on Wall Street, what € ™ s Morgan Stanley analysts to speculate about future inflation down wholesale revisions. (measured by the index producer prices, or PPI) fell 2.2% in prices of petrol fell by 25% in November. Normally, consumers would have such good news and very like to spend the savings of the bombs in shopping malls during the holidays. place most economists continue to spread doom and œgloom € â € by suggesting that consumers can accumulate their savings and are reluctant to spend amid these uncertain times.
News and Related Story:
- Money Week morning in front of the column:
Looking at another Fed rate cut either of Finance has New Housing Plan. - Investment of money special morning research report:
The lost decade: How the U.S. financial crisis resembles Japana € ™ s Ten years of misery – and how to play. - Money Research Morning Research Report:
Billions in U.S. funds bank bailout are fueling purchases in the world â € "in Instead of giving in the home. - Reuters:
OPEC € ™ s Khelil, a pragmatic leader in trying times. - Bloomberg News:
Madoff Victims € ™ â € ™ € ~ Tragedy says he has escaped scrutiny. - Wikipedia:
Ponzi scheme. - The New York Times:
Wilpon € ™ s Loss in Fraud Case May affect Mets. - Money Morning News:
Obamaâ € ™ s Talk movements Infrastructure Investment Market Monday.
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William Patalon III
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